Just two months prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
